Indonesia Trade Data (Monthly basis), starting from January 2022

[Indos]

Indonesia’s $7.56b Trade Surplus in April Sets New Record​

BY :JAYANTY NADA SHOFA
MAY 17, 2022



Jakarta. Indonesia booked a trade surplus of $7.56 billion in April, thus beating the country’s all-time high, the National Statistics Agency or BPS recently announced in a conference.

"This is the highest trade surplus. Our previous record high of $5.74 billion dates back to October 2021,” BPS chief Margo Yuwono told a virtual press briefing on Tuesday.

This also marks the 24th consecutive month that Indonesia posted a trade surplus since May 2020.

Indonesia's overall exports jumped 47.76 percent year-on-year to $27.32 billion in April. Indonesia last month imported $19.76 billion, expanding 21.97 percent year-on-year, according to BPS.

“The trade surplus mostly came from animal or vegetable fats and oil, followed by mineral fuels. The US, India, and the Philippines were the top contributors to the latest trade surplus,” Margo said.

Indonesia exported about $2.4 billion to the US in April. The Southeast Asian country's imports from the US stood at $830.7 million, thus resulting in a trade surplus of $1.6 billion. Margo attributed the positive trade balance with the US to apparel and footwear exports.

According to Margo, Indonesia's non-oil and gas trade balance with India in April registered a $1.5 billion surplus. Indonesia booked a trade surplus of $977.9 million with the Philippines in the same month. Mineral fuels were the largest contributor to the trade surpluses with India and the Philippines.

“At the same time, we are seeing a trade deficit with a number of countries. Indonesia's largest trade deficit last month was with Argentina, which reached $320.2 million,” Margo said.

The BPS data showed Indonesia's overall imports from Argentina reached $349.3 million in April. This far exceeded the $29.1 million Indonesia had exported to Argentina last month. BPS reported that Indonesia's bilateral trade with Australia was the second least favorable, with a deficit of $283.5 million in April.

Margo went on to say that cereal imports largely contributed to Indonesia's negative trade balance with Argentina. The same goes for the deficit with Australia, although mineral fuel imports were the largest contributor to the negative bilateral trade balance.

The high cereal imports from the said two countries possibly ensued from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has been a major wheat supplier for Indonesia.

"We can conclude that we are shifting some of our [cereal] imports from Ukraine [to] Argentina and Australia," Margo said.

Indonesia’s $7.56b Trade Surplus in April Sets New Record

Indonesia has also recorded a trade surplus for 24 consecutive months, starting from May 2020.

jakartaglobe.id

 

[Indos]

@Bilal9 This Indian pooling manager sentiment on Indonesia is beyond belief, even when they change the pooling manager, it is still Indians that they use ..........

AlhamduliLLAH the reality is the opposite of what they wish to happen.....

Look like Reuters erased the news put in their website, I use other publication that uses Reuters news

--------------------------------------------------------
13 May 2022 05:49PM

(Updated: 13 May 2022 05:49PM)

​

​

Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing in April: Reuters poll​

JAKARTA : Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus in April compared with March, as the value of exports was squeezed by a dip in commodity prices and due to higher imports over the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll was for Southeast Asia's biggest economy to post a $3.25 billion trade surplus in April, down from March's $4.53 billion.


The country has reported monthly trade surpluses since May 2020, driven by rising exports outpacing growth in imports which have been impacted by the pandemic.

The poll predicted April exports grew at an annual pace of 35.97 per cent, down from 44.36 per cent a month earlier. Imports were seen up 34.97 per cent, higher than the 30.85 per cent rise in March.

Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata, said the lower surplus was influenced by a decline in average global commodity prices such as crude palm oil and coal that fell more than 4 per centover the previous month.

"The PMI performance of major trading partners also showed a decline such as China, the Eurozone and the overall global manufacturing PMI index," he said, attributing a lower surplus also to stronger imports of consumer goods that usually increased during Ramadan, which this year started in April.

Radhika Rao, a senior economist at DBS, said she did not expect Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports to materially destabilise the country's trade position.

"The impact of the palm oil ban, which is the key export earner, will be more evident in this month (May)’s numbers," she said, noting the ban was seen as a temporary policy move.

Top palm oil exporter Indonesia has halted exports of the vegetable oil since April 28 to control domestic cooking oil prices.

April's trade data will be released on Tuesday.


(Polling by Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Ed Davies)

Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing in April: Reuters poll

JAKARTA : Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus in April compared with March, as the value of exports was squeezed by a dip in commodity prices and due to higher imports over the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Reuters poll showed.The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia: Trade surplus widens as exports surge

Indonesia’s export sector gets a lift from elevated commodity prices

think.ing.com

 

[Bilal9]

@Bilal9 This Indian pooling manager sentiment on Indonesia is beyond belief, even when they change the pooling manager, it is still Indians that they use ..........

AlhamduliLLAH the reality is the opposite of what they wish to happen.....

Look like Reuters erased the news put in their website, I use other publication that uses Reuters news

--------------------------------------------------------
13 May 2022 05:49PM

(Updated: 13 May 2022 05:49PM)

​

​

Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing in April: Reuters poll​

JAKARTA : Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus in April compared with March, as the value of exports was squeezed by a dip in commodity prices and due to higher imports over the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll was for Southeast Asia's biggest economy to post a $3.25 billion trade surplus in April, down from March's $4.53 billion.


The country has reported monthly trade surpluses since May 2020, driven by rising exports outpacing growth in imports which have been impacted by the pandemic.

The poll predicted April exports grew at an annual pace of 35.97 per cent, down from 44.36 per cent a month earlier. Imports were seen up 34.97 per cent, higher than the 30.85 per cent rise in March.

Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata, said the lower surplus was influenced by a decline in average global commodity prices such as crude palm oil and coal that fell more than 4 per centover the previous month.

"The PMI performance of major trading partners also showed a decline such as China, the Eurozone and the overall global manufacturing PMI index," he said, attributing a lower surplus also to stronger imports of consumer goods that usually increased during Ramadan, which this year started in April.

Radhika Rao, a senior economist at DBS, said she did not expect Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports to materially destabilise the country's trade position.

"The impact of the palm oil ban, which is the key export earner, will be more evident in this month (May)’s numbers," she said, noting the ban was seen as a temporary policy move.

Top palm oil exporter Indonesia has halted exports of the vegetable oil since April 28 to control domestic cooking oil prices.

April's trade data will be released on Tuesday.


(Polling by Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Ed Davies)

Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing in April: Reuters poll

JAKARTA : Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus in April compared with March, as the value of exports was squeezed by a dip in commodity prices and due to higher imports over the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Reuters poll showed.The median forecast of 12 economists in the poll...

www.channelnewsasia.com

Well one would wish that Senior economists and polling managers retained by global firms like DBS do not report biased figures, but that does happen often.

What is the worst that could happen to these people if they're caught falsifying figures, they'd go find another job, unless they are blackballed in the industry and you make an example of them. They have nothing to lose.

This kind of false prediction is serious business. A country's FDI depends on such data.

Indonesian concerned ministry (finance?) should protest to DBS and call the figures into question immediately. Unless you raise a fracas, DBS will never know and cannot question their biased employees....

 

[Indos]

Well one would wish that Senior economists and polling managers retained by global firms like DBS do not report biased figures, but that does happen often.

What is the worst that could happen to these people if they're caught falsifying figures, they'd go find another job, unless they are blackballed in the industry and you make an example of them. They have nothing to lose.

This kind of false prediction is serious business. A country's FDI depends on such data.

Indonesian concerned ministry (finance?) should protest to DBS and call the figures into question immediately. Unless you raise a fracas, DBS will never know and cannot question their biased employees....

There are 12 economist who become the source of the pooling, that Indians pooling manager that choose them, I mean Indians, as we see the names is changing, but still all of the pooling managers are Indians and the pooling prediction is very contrast with the real result that happen since January ( as I start the thread in January). Even the prediction is getting worst as we see in April trade balance prediction

 

[Bilal9]

There are 12 economist who become the source of the pooling, that Indians pooling manager that choose them, I mean Indians, as we see the names is changing, but still all of the pooling managers are Indians and the result is very contrast with the pooling prediction since January ( as I start the thread in January).

If enough people in Indonesia raise a protest on social media, then DBS will probably take note.

 

[Indos]

If enough people in Indonesia raise a protest on social media, then DBS will probably take note.

This prediction shows their competency, so let it be

 

[KediKesenFare3]

I'm happy for Indonesia and hopefully the country will use this extra income to invest in its economy and start a technology-driven transformation. All is fine for Indonesia as long as the commodity market is booming. Once the prices plummet, Indonesia turns into a typical trade deficit country as shown here:

Indonesia - Trade balance of goods 2022 | Statista

The statistic shows Indonesia's trade balance of goods from 2012 to 2022.

www.statista.com

Indonesia has so much potential.

 

[Indos]

I'm happy for Indonesia and hopefully the country will use this extra income to invest in its economy and start a technology-driven transformation. All is fine for Indonesia as long as the commodity market is booming. Once the prices plummet, Indonesia turns into a typical trade deficit country as shown here:

Indonesia - Trade balance of goods 2022 | Statista

The statistic shows Indonesia's trade balance of goods from 2012 to 2022.

www.statista.com

Indonesia has so much potential.

Yup, this coal companies are quite ambitious in diversification effort, you can look on the special thread I made to explain some of their effort

Diversification efforts of Indonesian giant energy companies to face greener world economy

This thread is to shows diversification effort of giant energy companies in Indonesia to face the future green economy. It will include companies operating in oil and gas sector, as well as in coal mining sector, both large state owned and private own companies.

defence.pk

 

[Indos]

I'm happy for Indonesia and hopefully the country will use this extra income to invest in its economy and start a technology-driven transformation. All is fine for Indonesia as long as the commodity market is booming. Once the prices plummet, Indonesia turns into a typical trade deficit country as shown here:

Indonesia - Trade balance of goods 2022 | Statista

The statistic shows Indonesia's trade balance of goods from 2012 to 2022.

www.statista.com

Indonesia has so much potential.

We have been quite serious in down streaming our resources like nickel, tin, bauxite. Starting by making many refining facility where we can see many of them happen in Sulawesi island, it can be seen on its regional growth compares to other Indonesians region

For stainless steel ( use nickel) for instant Indonesia has already become number 1

Stainless Steel Exporters by Country​

Countries​

Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of stainless steel during 2020.

1. Indonesia: US$1.6 billion (59.2% of exported stainless steel)
2. United Kingdom: $326 million (11.8%)
3. Sweden: $143.4 million (5.2%)
4. Austria: $72.4 million (2.6%)
5. Italy: $70.2 million (2.5%)
6. United States: $70 million (2.5%)
7. Spain: $61.6 million (2.2%)
8. Germany: $51.9 million (1.9%)
9. France: $50.6 million (1.8%)
10. Belgium: $46.4 million (1.7%)
11. Taiwan: $36.9 million (1.3%)
12. Canada: $26.8 million (1%)
13. Malaysia: $24.5 million (0.9%)
14. Netherlands: $17.9 million (0.7%)
15. India: $14.6 million (0.5%)

By value, the listed 15 countries shipped 96% of globally exported stainless in 2020.

Top Stainless Steel Exporters by Country Plus Average Prices 2022

Top stainless steel exporters by country in 2022 searchable database of stainless steel shipper nations plus average prices

www.worldstopexports.com

 

[Indos]

After Banning Nickel, Indonesia Will Halt Bauxite and Tin Exports.​

Indonesia's government recently announced a ban on bauxite and tin export, claiming this ban is necessary to support the development of downstream industries and economic restructuring.

Author: Fuller Wang, Yuanxi Ma
Editor: Fuller Wang
Yesterday 05:07 PM (GMT+8)


The global tin reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), are estimated to be around 4,900,000 tons. With 800,000 tons of tin reserves, Indonesia ranks second in the world after China, accounting for 17% of global reserves. Indonesia is also the world's second-largest producer of tin. China is the world's leading producer and supplier of tin. China, Indonesia, and Myanmar account for 37% of the global production of tin.

Even though Indonesia serves as an upstream supplier in the global supply chain, 90% of its nickel and aluminum is exported in raw form, with no added value. China, on the other hand, continues to rely heavily on tin imports. China has imported 184,300 tons of tin ore and tin concentrate, up 16.5% year on year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. Asia supplied most tin ore and tin concentrate that was exported to China, accounting for 82.45% of the total.

Indonesia has already suspended nickel exports, and its plans to ban tin and bauxite exports will have a significant impact on the international metal trade landscape. Non-ferrous metal price increases caused the tin and aluminum concept stock to rise in Q1, 2022. Companies with high self-sufficiency rates, according to Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd, will be benefited from the commodity export country restrictions.

After Banning Nickel, Indonesia Will Halt Bauxite and Tin Exports.

Indonesia's government recently announced a ban on bauxite and tin export, claiming this ban is necessary to support the development of downstream industries and economic restructuring.

equalocean.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia's trade deficit with China plunges 47.99 percent​

21st May 2022

Archive -- Indonesian Ambassador to China Djauhari Oratmangun (left) in conversation with Chongqing Vice Mayor Tan Jialing Cunrong before opening Indonesia-China Business Forum in Chongqing, Jon, Friday (21/5/2021). ANTARA FOTO/M. Irfan Ilmie/rwa. (ANTARA FOTO/M. IRFAN ILMIE)


Beijing (ANTARA) - Indonesia's trade deficit with China plummeted 47.99 percent to US$190.79 million in the first quarter of 2022, from US$366.1 million during the same period last year, the Indonesian Embassy in Beijing stated.

Indonesia's imports from China rose 30 percent to US$16.47 billion in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to US$12.67 billion during the same period last year, the embassy noted on Friday.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's exports to China grew 32.32 percent to US$16.28 billion during the January-March 2022 quarter, from US$12.31 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.


Related news: Conflict causal to RI's trade balance deficit with Russia, Ukraine

Indonesian commodities whose exports to China rose significantly in the first three months of this year comprised iron and steel that jumped 2.35 percent; metal ore, 109.29 percent; various chemicals, 66.17 percent; organic chemical materials, 107.37 percent; and tin and its derivatives, 283.61 percent.

The others were aluminium and its derivatives, 69.66 percent; ceramics, 71.97 percent; processed feathers, artificial flowers, and human hair-made goods, 165.95 percent; and vegetable textile fiber, 70.09 percent.

Bilateral trade between Indonesia and China in the first quarter of 2022 totaled US$32.76 billion, up 31.14 percent as compared to US$24.98 billion during the corresponding period last year.

Related news: Indonesia recorded US$930 million trade surplus in January 2022: BPS

The embassy further reported that China's investment in Indonesia during the January-March 2022 quarter had reached US$1.4 billion, up 40 percent as compared to the same period last year.

China is the third-biggest investor in Indonesia after Singapore and Hong Kong.

Indonesia's trade deficit with China plunges 47.99 percent - ANTARA News

Indonesia's trade deficit with China plummeted 47.99 percent to US$190.79 million in the first quarter of 2022, from US$366.1 million during the same ...

en.antaranews.com

 

[Indos]

Explainer-Indonesia's stop-start controls on palm oil exports​

FILE PHOTO: A woman shops for cooking oil made from oil palms at a supermarket in Jakarta, Indonesia, March 27, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has agreed to allow palm oil exports to resume after a three-week ban, though it is unclear how rapidly shipments will resume given accompanying rules aimed at securing domestic supply.

Indonesia's frequent export policy changes have unnerved the edible oil markets and heightened concerns about global food prices.

The country is the biggest exporter of palm oil - used in everything from margarine to shampoo - accounting for about 60 per cent of world supply.

WHAT ARE THE LATEST CHANGES?

Indonesia reopened exports for crude palm oil (CPO) and some of its derivative products from May 23 but export permits will be required to show companies have met a so-called Domestic Market Obligation (DMO).

The government has yet to make public details of the DMO, but chief economics minister Airlangga Hartarto said the target was to keep 10 million tonnes of cooking oil at home.

Last year, Indonesian produced 51 million tonnes of CPO and kernel oil, with around 9 million tonnes consumed locally for food.

Asked what portion of palm oil production would be sold domestically under the DMO, Hartarto said it would be 30 per cent with a target to lower it to 20 per cent.

WHY HAS INDONESIA BEEN SEEKING TO CONTROL PALM OIL EXPORTS?

Since November, authorities have unrolled a bewildering array of measures including subsidies, export permits and a palm oil levy as well as export bans to contain cooking oil prices.

However, this has failed to bring the cost of the household necessity made from palm oil into line with a government target of 14,000 rupiah ($0.9554) per litre.

Nonetheless, Indonesia removed the export ban, claiming prices were heading lower and following protests by farmers and calls by lawmakers to reconsider the policy.

Trade ministry data showed as of Monday cooking oil averaged 16,900 rupiah per litre, down from an average of 18,000 rupiah in April but up from 13,300 rupiah in July.

HAVE EXPORTS RESUMED?

While there has been anger over Indonesia's policy flip-flops among some major buyers in countries such as India and Bangladesh, analysts do not expect many to cut off buying.

Traders in India said Indonesian sellers have started to accept new orders, but were not rushing to sign business before understanding the DMO rules.

Palm oil producer Musim Mas, for example, said on Monday it was still focused on "flooding the domestic markets with cooking oil", noting concern about stubbornly high retail prices.

Palm oil companies are awaiting further guidance from the government, with authorities holding meetings with industry participants to explain changes.

WHAT HAS BEEN HINDERING COOKING OIL DISTRIBUTION?

Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi on March 18 blamed a "palm oil mafia" for exploiting the situation.

Still, red tape has also been blamed, with palm refiners wary of releasing cooking oil supplies because of a complicated process of getting subsidies. On Tuesday, a government official said the subsidy would be replaced by another policy to control prices.

The government has also assigned state food procurement agency Bulog to distribute more cooking oil, but last week it said regulations were needed to allow it to start.

Asked about distribution issues, an industry ministry official said there were many components but logistics and transport limitations were key obstacles.

WHAT WILL THE ENDGAME BE?

As was the case with Indonesia's ban of coal exports in January, the government has eased the ban on palm oil shipments in less than a month.

Still, despite the ban costing hundreds of millions of dollars in lost state revenue, the president appears ready to make further policy changes if needed, particularly after his approval rating hit a six-year low in a recent survey.

He has appointed senior minister Luhut Pandjaitan to oversee cooking oil distribution in the populous islands of Java and Bali.

"The objective is for bulk cooking oil to reach the price level targeted by the government, and to be evenly and amply distributed," said Jodi Mahardi, a spokesperson for Luhut.

($1 = 14,645 rupiah)



(Editing by Ed Davies and Jason Neely)

Source: Reuters

Explainer-Indonesia's stop-start controls on palm oil exports

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has agreed to allow palm oil exports to resume after a three-week ban, though it is unclear how rapidly shipments will resume given accompanying rules aimed at securing domestic supply. Indonesia's frequent export policy changes have unnerved the edible oil...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[Indos]

I expect around 5 billion USD surplus in May 2022, lets see what will be the real data tell Tomorrow

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Indonesia's trade surplus seen down in May as exports fall- Reuters poll​

14 Jun 2022 12:18PM
(Updated: 14 Jun 2022 12:18PM)
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/#twitter

JAKARTA : Indonesia's trade surplus likely shrank significantly in May because of a drop in exports after the government banned shipments of palm oil products, while imports were seen rising more quickly, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Eighteen economists in the poll had a median forecast of $3.83 billion trade surplus for May, about half of April's record $7.56 billion surplus.

Indonesia, the world's top exporter of palm oil, banned exports of the vegetable oil for three weeks to May 23, and shipments have since been slow to restart due to red tape. Palm oil products usually make up about 14 per cent of the country's exports.

Economists in the poll predicted exports to rise 38.69 per cent on a yearly basis in May, slower than April's 47.76 per cent, while imports were seen expanding 32.8 per cent from a year earlier, against April's growth rate of 21.97 per cent.

Faisal Rachman, an economist at Bank Mandiri who expected a $5 billion surplus in May, said high global commodity prices had continued to prop up exports, but an improvement in the domestic economy means imports will pick up pace.

"We expect the current account balance to record (a) surplus in 2022. We still expect that the trade surplus in this year's current account balance is inclined to shrink," Faisal said.

The May trade data will be released on Wednesday.

(Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Gayatri Suroyo and Kanupriya Kapoor)
Source: Reuters

Indonesia's trade surplus seen down in May as exports fall- Reuters poll

JAKARTA : Indonesia's trade surplus likely shrank significantly in May because of a drop in exports after the government banned shipments of palm oil products, while imports were seen rising more quickly, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Eighteen economists in the poll had a median forecast...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[Indos]

May 2022 trade surplus is much lower than what I predicted, at this time Reuters has better prediction. In May, Indonesia impose total ban on CPO and cooking oil.

Indonesia export May 2022 : 21.51 billion USD
Indonesia import May 2022 : 18.61 billion USD
Trade surplus : 2.90 billion USD