Testing closed system theory on Taliban do they need foreign money?

[Secur]

@jaibi

First of all . Please , accept my congratulations for writing such a well researched and detailed article showing an alternative view of the reality on ground . Tremendous effort , I would say !

As for the criticism ' They condemn , what they do not understand '
@jaibi

First of all . Please , accept my congratulations for writing such a well researched and detailed article showing an alternative view of the reality on ground . Tremendous effort , I would say !

As for the criticism ' They condemn , what they do not understand '

 

[Armstrong]

@Icarus @Xeric - Do check it out ?

 

[jaibi]

Talked of previously in such detail? Not a chance yaara. As I said, in sparse detail. There will always be an urge to put on the proverbial blinkers and restrain free thought- specially from those for whom free thought does not revolve around expressing scatological POVs.

The data may be accurate, may not completely be accurate. There might be margins of error in certain parameters. All of that does not invalidate the fact that the Taliban does have a local shadow economy, insight into which will vastly aide the state.

I took the lower limits in terms of revenue reporting and upper limit for the operation costs even then the figures are astounding to me.

 

[Dillinger]

@Oscar Sir, perhaps something you'd like to take a look at.

 

[Dillinger]

And pigs flew after that

Yada Yada Yada..........

Yaara not here. Ignore the troll baits or inflammatory posts. The OP has put in some rather quality work in this piece. Let it remain free of floating swine.
@Secur @Armstrong How much money did it take again for the TTP to finance their last jail break, could we extrapolate upon that figure to reach some rough calculations on the quantum of funds required for even more dramatic attacks like the one on the GHQ?
@jaibi On an average what would be the number of active cadre in the TTP/Taliban? Any idea anyone?

 

[anonymus]

@jaibi


One more perspective on this financing conundrum could be that if a terrorist organisation had developed skills to exist in a close economic system, it has effectively ceased to be a terrorist organisation and has metamorphosed itself into a shadow government like LTTE with all means of statecraft at it's disposal.

 

[Menace2Society]

There is extremely weak evidence for the first proposition, sir. I have extensively tried to find it, though there seems to be evidence for foreign support in the insurgency in Balochistan though.

Intelligence agencies work in mysterious ways.

Good luck in finding a paper trail.

Only way to do that is to plant ISI cells into Kabul which I suggested 6 months ago.

 

[jaibi]

Yaara not here. Ignore the troll baits or inflammatory posts. The OP has put in some rather quality work in this piece. Let it remain free of floating swine.
@Secur @Armstrong How much money did it take again for the TTP to finance their last jail break, could we extrapolate upon that figure to reach some rough calculations on the quantum of funds required for even more dramatic attacks like the one on the GHQ?
@jaibi On an average what would be the number of active cadre in the TTP/Taliban? Any idea anyone?

From my conversations it stands about 30-35,000 active fighters research that I quote in the piece called 'The Taliban: an organisational analysis' by Afzal & Wood centres around 40-50, 000 but the work was completed in 2008.

 

[SQ8]

First, Well written.. this is how articles should be done.

Second, while there is definitely a good argument for closed loop money flow for the TTP it may not be the same for the summation of extremist operations; specifically those sectarian in nature. That being said, the level of investment required goes beyond just recruiting personnel(who are essentially cheap); it includes both LEA and political sympathizers. One must differentiate between funding for the TTP and the Afghan Taliban as they still operate on two different financial schemes. One has its inflow of funds through poppy and local "collections" along with donations from Pakistani sympathizers(which are high in number). The other looks to create funds by criminal activities such as kidnapping and extortion along with donations from sympathizers both at home and abroad. Additionally, the TTP arent the only militant extremist group operating in Pakistan. There are various other sectarian terror groups such as LeJ, NSM and whatever tatters of Al-Qaeda that operate from cities such as Karachi and Lahore. Hence, the Taliban aren't the only extremist group with cash flows in the country that require scrutiny. Closed loop financing for all of these groups might be possible but quite unlikely.

If the money flowing was generated only through direct or siphoned donations by the people of Pakistan it would not warrant other tactics such as street robbery and extortion employed by these elements today. In essence, there still seems to be a lack of resources that limits their operations. Certain events in Quetta with regards to the Hazara issue raised a lot of hue and cry recently under the carpet when both neighbours and brothers were found twiddling their proxies in our backyard.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/world/asia/pakistani-taliban-turn-to-kidnapping-to-finance-operations.html?pagewanted=all
Funding the Pakistani Taliban | GlobalPost
Terrorism: Focus - Taliban money trail from Pakistan to United Arab Emirates - Adnkronos Security
http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/taliban_opium_1.pdf
BBC News - Taliban's brisk trade of kidnapping in Karachi

 

[jaibi]

@jaibi


One more perspective on this financing conundrum could be that if a terrorist organisation had developed skills to exist in a close economic system, it has effectively ceased to be a terrorist organisation and has metamorphosed itself into a shadow government like LTTE with all means of statecraft at it's disposal.

Yes, as they took control of Swat they actually did become an alternative organisation like the LTTE however as of the military operations they now have focused on being very mobile that is why their territorial claims are going down. In fact, there is even some evidence that the hardcore ideological Talibs are waning in influence and are being replaced by more business minded individuals who are seeking to make terrorism profitable.

@jaibi

First of all . Please , accept my congratulations for writing such a well researched and detailed article showing an alternative view of the reality on ground . Tremendous effort , I would say !

As for the criticism ' They condemn , what they do not understand '
@jaibi

First of all . Please , accept my congratulations for writing such a well researched and detailed article showing an alternative view of the reality on ground . Tremendous effort , I would say !

As for the criticism ' They condemn , what they do not understand '

Thank you for reading, Secur. I really appreciate it.

 

[jaibi]

First, Well written.. this is how articles should be done.

Second, while there is definitely a good argument for closed loop money flow for the TTP it may not be the same for the summation of extremist operations; specifically those sectarian in nature. That being said, the level of investment required goes beyond just recruiting personnel(who are essentially cheap); it includes both LEA and political sympathizers. One must differentiate between funding for the TTP and the Afghan Taliban as they still operate on two different financial schemes. One has its inflow of funds through poppy and local "collections" along with donations from Pakistani sympathizers(which are high in number). The other looks to create funds by criminal activities such as kidnapping and extortion along with donations from sympathizers both at home and abroad. Additionally, the TTP arent the only militant extremist group operating in Pakistan. There are various other sectarian terror groups such as LeJ, NSM and whatever tatters of Al-Qaeda that operate from cities such as Karachi and Lahore. Hence, the Taliban aren't the only extremist group with cash flows in the country that require scrutiny. Closed loop financing for all of these groups might be possible but quite unlikely.

If the money flowing was generated only through direct or siphoned donations by the people of Pakistan it would not warrant other tactics such as street robbery and extortion employed by these elements today. In essence, there still seems to be a lack of resources that limits their operations. Certain events in Quetta with regards to the Hazara issue raised a lot of hue and cry recently under the carpet when both neighbours and brothers were found twiddling their proxies in our backyard.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/world/asia/pakistani-taliban-turn-to-kidnapping-to-finance-operations.html?pagewanted=all
Funding the Pakistani Taliban | GlobalPost
Terrorism: Focus - Taliban money trail from Pakistan to United Arab Emirates - Adnkronos Security
http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/taliban_opium_1.pdf
BBC News - Taliban's brisk trade of kidnapping in Karachi

Thank you Oscar for your appreciation, it means a lot.

My argument is not that there is not input of resources from outside, there is evidence that there is, it is that that is not the primary backbone of the Terrorists the FATF report details on how funds are to be moved from foreign investments and that requres a certain network which also works in the same nexus as the narcotics-criminal enterprise.

The data that I dug up mostly focuses on narcotics and criminal enterprises so just imagine how much money these guys actually have, I checked it again and again. It actually means that they pay their lieutenants more than a Pak army captain! There's a running joke in the army that says that they get vacation for two years in soft areas whereas Talibs get paid vacations to Dubai!

 

[jaibi]

Intelligence agencies work in mysterious ways.

Good luck in finding a paper trail.

Only way to do that is to plant ISI cells into Kabul which I suggested 6 months ago.

Actually, Menace, I believed the same but it is not truly so with technology it is possible to uncover a lot of intelligence in fact ISI and the SPD have approached my university and requested researchers so I don't agree.

 

[Zarvan]

I agree . Though , Its extremely sad and disgusting to hear that the people of Pakistan - mostly middle class are paying the yearly welfare money - Zakat to Madarsas and other religious institutions which are financing terror and chaos against them and their own country . What bigger stupidity would be , if not providing money and resources to the same elements which have killed 50,000 of their brethren and affected countless families . They have virtually brought the economy to a near halt and made Pakistan - a place to be feared by waging Jihad here . Maybe , people should start researching a little before donating their hard earned money to the terrorists/militants , Mullah brigade and Jihadis .

Sir our government should stop following USA orders and implement Islam completely other wise these Madrassas would remain strong and powerful

 

[Secur]

Sir our government should stop following USA orders and implement Islam completely other wise these Madrassas would remain strong and powerful

Yes , it should - leave the Islam completely part for the common Pakistani to decide in democratic elections and not on gun point because so far the response has been in negative . Pakistan must follow a neutral foreign policy with no influence of the Americans or the Arabs or the delusional Ummah unless it wants to remain in the same state forever , I agree again . But the logic of killing Pakistanis because ' Muslims are being killed elsewhere by the U.S. and the West ' is absurd and totally ridiculous for a rational and sane person . If one were to use his God given brain , he would realize that Muslims have killed Muslims themselves than the Americans ever have . The terrorists hideouts and HQ - the Madarsas , actually . Not just the sacred and respected religious institution , it once used to be .

 

[SQ8]

Thank you Oscar for your appreciation, it means a lot.

My argument is not that there is not input of resources from outside, there is evidence that there is, it is that that is not the primary backbone of the Terrorists the FATF report details on how funds are to be moved from foreign investments and that requres a certain network which also works in the same nexus as the narcotics-criminal enterprise.

The data that I dug up mostly focuses on narcotics and criminal enterprises so just imagine how much money these guys actually have, I checked it again and again. It actually means that they pay their lieutenants more than a Pak army captain! There's a running joke in the army that says that they get vacation for two years in soft areas whereas Talibs get paid vacations to Dubai!

Their commanders are well paid, but the vacation bit is slightly difficult unless they head out from Iran or Afghanistan. The everyday grinder is paid only slightly less than a PA soldier; but his kit comprises of a basic equipment vest, his shawl, a nestle bottle of water and his gun. On these he is technically autonomous for two to three weeks easy. I agree that the network is shifting since there was a crackdown on the inflow of funds since 2007, which has led the organizations to focus on the criminal network for making up for the reduction in external funding. What is important to observe is to identify individual networks. The TTP may be trying to get on the same financial "institution" that provides for other organizations such as LeJ, Let etc.. but the current spate of kidnappings and extortion suggest that they are still less financed by donations and more by criminal activities.

In other words, a further in depth look by someone following your initial endeavour should look at differentiating the financial streams of each of these organizations.